ISIPTA'07 - FIFTH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITY: THEORIES AND APPLICATIONS

Charles University, Faculty of Mathematicsand Physics
Prague, Czech Republic
16-19 July 2007

ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Serena Doria

Coherence and Fuzzy Reasoning

Abstract

Upper and lower conditional previsions are defined by the Choquet integral with respect to the Hausdorff outer and inner measures when the conditioning events have positive and finite Hausdorff outer or inner measures in their dimension; otherwise, when conditioning events have infinite or zero Hausdorff outer or inner measures in their dimension, they are defined by a 0-1 valued finitely, but not countably additive probability. It is proven that, if we consider the restriction of the (outer) Haudorff measures to the Borel -field, these (upper) conditional and unconditional previsions satisfy the disintegration property in the sense of Dubins with respect to all countable partitions of . This result is obtained as a consequence of the fact that non-disintegrability characterizes finitely as opposed to countably additive probability. Moreover upper and lower conditional previsions are proven to be coherent, in the sense of Walley, with the uncondintional previsions. Properties related to the coherence of upper conditional probabilities are extended to the case where information is represented by fuzzy sets. In particular, given an infinite set , a conditioning rule for possibility distribution is proposed so that it is coherent and it is coherent with the unconditional possibility distribution. Through this conditional possibility distribution, a conditional possibility measure with respect to the partition of all singletons of [0,1] is defined. It is proved it satisfies the conglomerative principle of de Finetti.

Keywords. Upper and lower conditional previsions, Hausdorff outer and inner measures, disintegration property, fuzzy reasoning, conditional possibility distribution.

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Authors addresses:

Department of Earth Sciences
Universita'G.D'Annunzio
Via dei Vestini 31
66013 Chieti
Italy

E-mail addresses:

Serena Doria s.doria@dst.unich.it


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